Pappy Van Winkle 2014 Release Forecast

As you may know, we track tons of stats, reach out to industry insiders, stalk stores, and crawl the internet to collect data to help regular whiskey lovers find great bourbon at retail prices.  We’re working diligently to add all of our data to the website and although this map isn’t quite done, we figured we’d post it given that we’re in November.  The map is intended to help people get a ballpark guess about when Pappy will arrive so they can prepare their campouts.  We should also note that this is our first time ever publishing this map, so please take it easy on us, as we’ll probably miss the mark on a few key forecasts.  It’s a lot like sports betting.  We’re playing the odds, but reality doesn’t always match up.  In any case, we’re sharing our guesses.  Good luck!

WARNING #1 – This is based on real data, but we run that data through our voodoo mathematics calculator  (where we consider things like shipping days, population sizes, bourbon consumption volumes, previous release dates, control state status, overall liquor sales, demographics, discussions with psychics, etc.) to get a likely release date range.  So, much like the weather prediction, we’re probably going to miss some…and we’ll likely improve the forecast as the dates approach.

WARNING #2 – This is our first year publishing this forecast map outside of local friends and family, and frankly, there’s not enough data to make our guesses statistically valid…yet.  In future years, we expect to have enough data to refine our forecast.  In any event, we’ve used it in previous years for personal predictions and it was about 60% accurate so we figured we’d share it.

WARNING #3 – This is not based on any actual data from Buffalo Trace or ORVW.

WARNING #4 – I should also note that the # of cases per state is our best guess based on bourbon consumption, sales, and population in each state.

So…there you have it.  Now on to the details of our forecast.  The blue lines represent the likely date ranges for the release of Pappy.  The red dots show the actual release dates.  States with missing historical data are blank or listed as not having enough data.  If anyone has any additional data or information to help us improve our maps, please let us know!  As new data comes in, we’ll refine the forecast.


(the release map will open when you click the link above.  You may need to click again on the image to zoom in to a level where you can see your state.)

11/3 – We will likely be pushing a few states out a week.  The North Dakota launch was odd and caught us off guard so we’re adjusting this years model.  We’re trying to get a few more sightings to help us make the tweaks.

11/4 – We hit on Kentucky and South Carolina, but missed on Kansas.  Sorry Kansas!

11/5 – We hit on Tennessee and missed on Arizona.  Sorry Arizona!  The Arizona delivery is Young’s Market – probably means California and Washington come in a little earlier too.  We’ll monitor and update if it looks like it’s heading that way.

11/6 – We hit on DC (barely!) and New Hampshire.  We’re pulling in the MA dates too.  Note: New Hampshire is waiting list only – you won’t see it in the state-run stores.  But they did confirm it’s in central warehouse.  If you’re in New Hampshire, the Exit 6 store in Nashua maintains the list.  You can join in person or over the phone.  List is full for next year too, but might be able to get some the following year.

11/7 – We got Ohio right.  Delaware is out so we updated our forecast for New York and Minnesota

11/10 – We got Rhode Island right but were a little early on Michigan.

11/15 – We missed by a tiny bit on Michigan and Mississippi and by a lot for Missouri (sorry guys!).  We shifted Colorado and Iowa out.  We hit on Maine, Alabama, South Dakota, and New Jersey

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